The Israeli military has announced that it successfully intercepted 99% of the missiles and drones fired by Iran overnight, preventing them from hitting their intended targets. Iran claimed the attack was a response to a deadly assault on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria two weeks ago. The outcome of this situation largely hinges on Israel’s response to last night’s attack.
Various countries in the region, as well as others who strongly oppose the Iranian regime, have urged Israel to exercise restraint. Iran’s position is clear – they believe the matter is settled and warned against any retaliatory action, threatening a stronger counterattack that Israel won’t be able to defend against.
However, Israel has already pledged “a significant response” and is known for its hardline stance. In the past, Israel has reacted swiftly to Hamas-led attacks, punishing Gaza for months afterwards. Given this direct attack by Iran, Israel’s war cabinet is unlikely to leave it unanswered, regardless of the limited impact on the ground.
Israel’s options now come under scrutiny. It could heed the advice of neighboring countries and exercise “strategic patience,” abstaining from direct retaliation while continuing to target Iran’s proxy allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon or military sites in Syria, as they have done for years. Alternatively, Israel could retaliate with a carefully calculated set of long-range missile strikes, specifically targeting the missile bases used by Iran in its recent attack. This would still be viewed as an escalation by Iran, as it would be the first time Israel directly targeted Iran, rather than its proxy militias.
Another consideration for Israel is whether to expand its response to include bases, training camps, and command-and-control centers of Iran’s powerful Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Both of these options carry the risk of further provocation from Iran.
A crucial question is whether the situation will draw the United States into a full-scale conflict with Iran in the region. The US maintains military facilities in all six Gulf Arab states, as well as Syria, Iraq, and Jordan, all of which could become targets for Iran’s extensive arsenal of ballistic missiles. Additionally, Iran has long threatened to close the strategically important Strait of Hormuz if attacked, potentially disrupting a significant portion of global oil supplies.
Governments are now working tirelessly to avoid the nightmare scenario of a region-wide war involving the US and Gulf states.
